MLS · Soccer

MLS Cup Playoff Picture

Where OLC projects the regular-season standings to finish · 18 Teams · East & West Updated Oct 6, 2026, 11:10 PM PT

Eastern Conference Field

Seed	Team	OLC Rating	Record	Points	Status
1	Nashville SC	59.92	25-3-6	81	BYE
2	NE Revolution	52.60	21-9-4	67	ROUND ONE
3	Inter Miami	53.96	18-6-10	64	ROUND ONE
4	Charlotte	52.46	18-9-7	61	ROUND ONE
5	Chicago Fire	52.98	18-9-6	60	ROUND ONE
6	NYCFC	50.26	12-12-9	45	ROUND ONE
7	Toronto FC	48.38	11-12-11	44	ROUND ONE
8	FC Cincinnati	48.95	11-13-9	42	HOST WILD CARD
9	RB New York	46.54	12-16-6	42	AT #8

Playoff Cut Line

#9 Projected Last Team In

RB New York

42 Points

46.54 OLC Rating

#10 Projected First Team Out

D.C. United

42 Points

48.92 OLC Rating

Points Gap: 0

Western Conference Field

Seed	Team	OLC Rating	Record	Points	Status
1	Vancouver	55.08	20-8-5	65	BYE
2	St. Louis City	54.00	19-7-8	65	ROUND ONE
3	Houston	51.63	19-10-5	62	ROUND ONE
4	SJ Earthquakes	53.02	18-10-6	60	ROUND ONE
5	FC Dallas	53.67	17-8-8	59	ROUND ONE
6	LAFC	52.41	14-12-8	50	ROUND ONE
7	Seattle Sounders	50.68	13-12-8	47	ROUND ONE
8	LA Galaxy	48.09	12-13-9	45	HOST WILD CARD
9	Austin FC	48.45	10-13-10	40	AT #8

Playoff Cut Line

#9 Projected Last Team In

Austin FC

40 Points

48.45 OLC Rating

#10 Projected First Team Out

Colorado Rapids

39 Points

48.19 OLC Rating

Points Gap: 1

MLS Cup Playoffs

Current Bracket & OLC Predictions

Wild Card

#8 hosts #9 · single elimination, straight to penalties if level

Eastern Conference

RB New York12-16-6 · OLC 46.54

FC Cincinnati11-13-9 · OLC 48.95

26%

74%

OLC PICK FC CincinnatiLikely

Western Conference

Austin FC10-13-10 · OLC 48.45

LA Galaxy12-13-9 · OLC 48.09

39%

61%

OLC PICK LA GalaxyLean

Round One — Best-of-3 Series

Games 1 & 3 at the higher seed · Game 2 at the lower seed

Eastern Conference

#1 series -- Game 1 (at higher seed)

Nashville SC25-3-6 · OLC 59.92

FC Cincinnati11-13-9 · OLC 48.95

Game 1 (at higher seed) · Nashville SC

94%

Game 2 (at lower seed) · FC Cincinnati

85%

15%

Game 3, if necessary (at higher seed) · Nashville SC

94%

Projected Series ResultNashville SC wins 2-0

#2 series -- Game 1 (at higher seed)

NE Revolution21-9-4 · OLC 52.60

Toronto FC11-12-11 · OLC 48.38

Game 1 (at higher seed) · NE Revolution

20%

80%

Game 2 (at lower seed) · Toronto FC

59%

41%

Game 3, if necessary (at higher seed) · NE Revolution

20%

80%

Projected Series ResultNE Revolution wins 2-0

#3 series -- Game 1 (at higher seed)

Inter Miami18-6-10 · OLC 53.96

NYCFC12-12-9 · OLC 50.26

Game 1 (at higher seed) · Inter Miami

22%

78%

Game 2 (at lower seed) · NYCFC

56%

44%

Game 3, if necessary (at higher seed) · Inter Miami

22%

78%

Projected Series ResultInter Miami wins 2-0

#4 series -- Game 1 (at higher seed)

Charlotte18-9-7 · OLC 52.46

Chicago Fire18-9-6 · OLC 52.98

Game 1 (at higher seed) · Charlotte

40%

60%

Game 2 (at lower seed) · Chicago Fire

35%

65%

Game 3, if necessary (at higher seed) · Charlotte

40%

60%

Projected Series ResultCharlotte wins 2-1

Western Conference

#1 series -- Game 1 (at higher seed)

Vancouver20-8-5 · OLC 55.08

LA Galaxy12-13-9 · OLC 48.09

Game 1 (at higher seed) · Vancouver

13%

87%

Game 2 (at lower seed) · LA Galaxy

72%

28%

Game 3, if necessary (at higher seed) · Vancouver

13%

87%

Projected Series ResultVancouver wins 2-0

#2 series -- Game 1 (at higher seed)

St. Louis City19-7-8 · OLC 54.00

Seattle Sounders13-12-8 · OLC 50.68

Game 1 (at higher seed) · St. Louis City

23%

77%

Game 2 (at lower seed) · Seattle Sounders

54%

46%

Game 3, if necessary (at higher seed) · St. Louis City

23%

77%

Projected Series ResultSt. Louis City wins 2-0

#3 series -- Game 1 (at higher seed)

Houston19-10-5 · OLC 51.63

LAFC14-12-8 · OLC 52.41

Game 1 (at higher seed) · Houston

41%

59%

Game 2 (at lower seed) · LAFC

33%

67%

Game 3, if necessary (at higher seed) · Houston

41%

59%

Projected Series ResultHouston wins 2-1

#4 series -- Game 1 (at higher seed)

SJ Earthquakes18-10-6 · OLC 53.02

FC Dallas17-8-8 · OLC 53.67

Game 1 (at higher seed) · SJ Earthquakes

40%

60%

Game 2 (at lower seed) · FC Dallas

34%

66%

Game 3, if necessary (at higher seed) · SJ Earthquakes

40%

60%

Projected Series ResultSJ Earthquakes wins 2-1

Conference Semifinals

Reseeded · higher remaining seed hosts

Eastern Conference

1/8-9 winner vs. 4/5 winner

Charlotte18-9-7 · OLC 52.46

Nashville SC25-3-6 · OLC 59.92

12%

88%

OLC PICK Nashville SCStrong

2/7 winner vs. 3/6 winner

Inter Miami18-6-10 · OLC 53.96

NE Revolution21-9-4 · OLC 52.60

44%

56%

OLC PICK NE RevolutionLean

Western Conference

1/8-9 winner vs. 4/5 winner

SJ Earthquakes18-10-6 · OLC 53.02

Vancouver20-8-5 · OLC 55.08

28%

72%

OLC PICK VancouverLikely

2/7 winner vs. 3/6 winner

Houston19-10-5 · OLC 51.63

St. Louis City19-7-8 · OLC 54.00

27%

73%

OLC PICK St. Louis CityLikely

Conference Finals

Eastern Conference Final

NE Revolution21-9-4 · OLC 52.60

Nashville SC25-3-6 · OLC 59.92

12%

88%

OLC PICK Nashville SCStrong

Western Conference Final

St. Louis City19-7-8 · OLC 54.00

Vancouver20-8-5 · OLC 55.08

32%

68%

OLC PICK VancouverLikely

MLS Cup

Eastern Conference Champion

Vancouver

Western Conference Champion

Nashville SC

OLC Win Probability

18%82%

OLC PickNashville SC

ConfidenceStrong

OLC Projected MLS Cup Champion

Nashville SC

Methodology. The projected field is seeded entirely from the workbook’s Projected Standings (OLC’s rest-of-season simulation), never from today’s actual standings. The 18-team field (9 per conference), Wild Card game, and best-of-3 Round One all follow MLS’s real current-season playoff format; every game/series win probability uses today’s Composite Ratings.