OLC Digital Ratings
NAIA · Football

NAIA Championship Picture

Projected Playoff Field · Where OLC projects the regular season to finish · 20 Teams Updated Oct 5, 2026, 2:16 AM PT

NAIA Football Championship Series — Projected

Automatic Qualifiers

13 conference champions
1St. ThomasThe Sun Conference · OLC 67.66AQ
2College of IdahoFrontier Conference West · OLC 65.71AQ
3FriendsKansas Collegiate Athletic Conference Bissell · OLC 64.50AQ
4Indiana WesleyanMid-States Football Association Mideast · OLC 64.01AQ
6CampbellsvilleMid-South Conference · OLC 61.06AQ
7Benedictine (KS)Heart of America Athletic Conference South · OLC 60.86AQ
10Montana TechFrontier Conference East · OLC 58.68AQ
11Olivet NazareneMid-States Football Association Midwest · OLC 58.44AQ
13Grand ViewHeart of America Athletic Conference North · OLC 57.49AQ
14MidlandGreat Plains Athletic Conference · OLC 56.98AQ
18Louisiana ChristianSooner Athletic Conference · OLC 53.81AQ
19EvangelKansas Collegiate Athletic Conference Kessinger · OLC 50.48AQ
20PikevilleAppalachian Athletic Conference · OLC 45.27AQ

At-Large Selections

7 at-large bids
5KeiserThe Sun Conference · OLC 62.00AL
8Lindsey WilsonMid-South Conference · OLC 60.04AL
9McPhersonKansas Collegiate Athletic Conference Bissell · OLC 59.14AL
12BakerHeart of America Athletic Conference South · OLC 57.69AL
15MorningsideGreat Plains Athletic Conference · OLC 55.37AL
16DordtGreat Plains Athletic Conference · OLC 54.74AL
17CarrollFrontier Conference West · OLC 54.70AL

First Four Out

Next four outside the field
1SouthwesternKansas Collegiate Athletic Conference Bissell · OLC 51.59
2SoutheasternThe Sun Conference · OLC 51.54
3OUAZSooner Athletic Conference · OLC 51.21
4MarianMid-States Football Association Midwest · OLC 50.18

First Round

8 Teams • 4 Games · campus sites — true home field; seeds 13-20

20
Pikeville3-2 · OLC 45.27
VS
13
Grand View5-1 · OLC 57.49
OLC PICK Grand ViewStrong
18
Louisiana Christian5-1 · OLC 53.81
VS
14
Midland5-1 · OLC 56.98
OLC PICK MidlandLikely
19
Evangel4-2 · OLC 50.48
VS
15
Morningside5-1 · OLC 55.37
OLC PICK MorningsideLikely
17
Carroll4-1 · OLC 54.70
VS
16
Dordt3-2 · OLC 54.74
OLC PICK DordtLean

Round of 16 — Projected

16 Teams • 8 Games · campus sites — reseeded; better seed hosts

12
Baker4-1 · OLC 57.69
VS
1
St. Thomas5-0 · OLC 67.66
OLC PICK St. ThomasStrong
10
Montana Tech5-1 · OLC 58.68
VS
2
College of Idaho5-0 · OLC 65.71
OLC PICK College of IdahoStrong
9
McPherson6-0 · OLC 59.14
VS
3
Friends6-0 · OLC 64.50
OLC PICK FriendsLikely
11
Olivet Nazarene4-0 · OLC 58.44
VS
4
Indiana Wesleyan5-0 · OLC 64.01
OLC PICK Indiana WesleyanLikely
15
Morningside5-1 · OLC 55.37
VS
5
Keiser3-1 · OLC 62.00
OLC PICK KeiserStrong
16
Dordt3-2 · OLC 54.74
VS
6
Campbellsville4-1 · OLC 61.06
OLC PICK CampbellsvilleStrong
14
Midland5-1 · OLC 56.98
VS
7
Benedictine (KS)5-1 · OLC 60.86
OLC PICK Benedictine (KS)Likely
13
Grand View5-1 · OLC 57.49
VS
8
Lindsey Wilson5-1 · OLC 60.04
OLC PICK Lindsey WilsonLikely

Quarterfinals — Projected

8 Teams • 4 Games · campus sites — reseeded; better seed hosts

5
Keiser3-1 · OLC 62.00
VS
1
St. Thomas5-0 · OLC 67.66
OLC PICK St. ThomasLikely
7
Benedictine (KS)5-1 · OLC 60.86
VS
2
College of Idaho5-0 · OLC 65.71
OLC PICK College of IdahoLikely
8
Lindsey Wilson5-1 · OLC 60.04
VS
3
Friends6-0 · OLC 64.50
OLC PICK FriendsLikely
6
Campbellsville4-1 · OLC 61.06
VS
4
Indiana Wesleyan5-0 · OLC 64.01
OLC PICK Indiana WesleyanLikely

Semifinals — Projected

4 Teams • 2 Games · campus sites — reseeded; better seed hosts

4
Indiana Wesleyan5-0 · OLC 64.01
VS
1
St. Thomas5-0 · OLC 67.66
OLC PICK St. ThomasLikely
3
Friends6-0 · OLC 64.50
VS
2
College of Idaho5-0 · OLC 65.71
OLC PICK College of IdahoLean

National Championship

fixed neutral site

2
College of Idaho5-0 · OLC 65.71
VS
1
St. Thomas5-0 · OLC 67.66
OLC PICK St. ThomasLean
OLC Projected National Champion
St. Thomas
58% chance to win
Methodology. Each of the 13 recognized conferences gets exactly one automatic qualifier (its champion, the highest-rated eligible team); the remaining at-large slots go to the next-highest-rated eligible teams nationally. Seeds 1-12 bye into the Round of 16; seeds 13-20 play the First Round, hosted by the higher seed. Every round is a real campus-site game using OLC’s full home-field win-probability model, except the National Championship, played at a fixed neutral site, which uses OLC’s neutral-site model instead. Nothing here reflects an actual selection-committee decision or announced bracket — this is OLC’s projection for how the season and playoff finish.