OLC Digital Ratings
NFL · Football

NFL Playoff Projections

Projected Playoff Field · 14 Teams · 7 AFC · 7 NFC Updated Oct 5, 2026, 9:18 PM PT

NFL Playoff Projections — Projected

AFC Playoff Field

SeedTeamRecordOLC
1Kansas City ChiefsFirst-Round Bye4-054.39
2Jacksonville JaguarsDivision Winner3-152.75
3Baltimore RavensDivision Winner3-145.30
4Buffalo BillsDivision Winner3-144.76
5Las Vegas RaidersWild Card3-149.91
6Cleveland BrownsWild Card3-144.39
7New England PatriotsWild Card2-242.84
1Kansas City Chiefs54.39
First-Round Bye4-0
2Jacksonville Jaguars52.75
Division Winner3-1
3Baltimore Ravens45.30
Division Winner3-1
4Buffalo Bills44.76
Division Winner3-1
5Las Vegas Raiders49.91
Wild Card3-1
6Cleveland Browns44.39
Wild Card3-1
7New England Patriots42.84
Wild Card2-2

NFC Playoff Field

SeedTeamRecordOLC
1San Francisco 49ersFirst-Round Bye4-060.09
2Minnesota VikingsDivision Winner4-055.45
3Atlanta FalconsDivision Winner2-244.21
4New York GiantsDivision Winner3-144.07
5Seattle SeahawksWild Card3-153.93
6Chicago BearsWild Card3-152.98
7Los Angeles RamsWild Card2-244.59
1San Francisco 49ers60.09
First-Round Bye4-0
2Minnesota Vikings55.45
Division Winner4-0
3Atlanta Falcons44.21
Division Winner2-2
4New York Giants44.07
Division Winner3-1
5Seattle Seahawks53.93
Wild Card3-1
6Chicago Bears52.98
Wild Card3-1
7Los Angeles Rams44.59
Wild Card2-2

Wild Card Round

true home field

AFC Wild Card Round

1Kansas City ChiefsFirst-Round Bye
7
New England Patriots2-2 · OLC 42.84
VS
2
Jacksonville Jaguars3-1 · OLC 52.75
OLC PICK Jacksonville JaguarsStrong
6
Cleveland Browns3-1 · OLC 44.39
VS
3
Baltimore Ravens3-1 · OLC 45.30
OLC PICK Baltimore RavensLean
5
Las Vegas Raiders3-1 · OLC 49.91
VS
4
Buffalo Bills3-1 · OLC 44.76
OLC PICK Las Vegas RaidersLean

NFC Wild Card Round

1San Francisco 49ersFirst-Round Bye
7
Los Angeles Rams2-2 · OLC 44.59
VS
2
Minnesota Vikings4-0 · OLC 55.45
OLC PICK Minnesota VikingsStrong
6
Chicago Bears3-1 · OLC 52.98
VS
3
Atlanta Falcons2-2 · OLC 44.21
OLC PICK Chicago BearsLikely
5
Seattle Seahawks3-1 · OLC 53.93
VS
4
New York Giants3-1 · OLC 44.07
OLC PICK Seattle SeahawksLikely

Divisional Round — Projected

reseeded — #1 hosts the lowest remaining seed

AFC Divisional Round

5
Las Vegas Raiders3-1 · OLC 49.91
VS
1
Kansas City Chiefs4-0 · OLC 54.39
OLC PICK Kansas City ChiefsLikely
3
Baltimore Ravens3-1 · OLC 45.30
VS
2
Jacksonville Jaguars3-1 · OLC 52.75
OLC PICK Jacksonville JaguarsStrong

NFC Divisional Round

6
Chicago Bears3-1 · OLC 52.98
VS
1
San Francisco 49ers4-0 · OLC 60.09
OLC PICK San Francisco 49ersStrong
5
Seattle Seahawks3-1 · OLC 53.93
VS
2
Minnesota Vikings4-0 · OLC 55.45
OLC PICK Minnesota VikingsLikely

Conference Championships — Projected

higher seed hosts

AFC Championship

2
Jacksonville Jaguars3-1 · OLC 52.75
VS
1
Kansas City Chiefs4-0 · OLC 54.39
OLC PICK Kansas City ChiefsLikely

NFC Championship

2
Minnesota Vikings4-0 · OLC 55.45
VS
1
San Francisco 49ers4-0 · OLC 60.09
OLC PICK San Francisco 49ersLikely

Super Bowl LXI — Projected

SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA — Feb 14, 2027

1
Kansas City Chiefs4-0 · OLC 54.39
VS
1
San Francisco 49ers4-0 · OLC 60.09
OLC PICK San Francisco 49ersLikely
OLC Projected Super Bowl Champion
San Francisco 49ers
72% projected win probability
How OLC NFL Playoff Projections Work. OLC builds the 14-team field (the top 4 teams in each conference by division, seeded 1–4, plus the next 3 best records per conference as seeds 5–7), projects the Wild Card Round (seed 7 at seed 2, seed 6 at seed 3, seed 5 at seed 4, with the #1 seed idle on a first-round bye) using OLC’s full home-field win-probability model, then reseeds each conference for the Divisional Round — the #1 seed hosts whichever surviving team has the lowest seed, and the other two surviving teams play each other, with the better seed hosting. Projected winners advance through the Conference Championships (again, better seed hosts) to a Super Bowl projection, which uses OLC’s neutral-site model since neither team is truly “home.” Nothing here reflects an actual NFL schedule release, coin toss, or committee decision — every matchup, probability and pick updates automatically as OLC Ratings do.