NCAA · Football
Alabama
Miami (FL)
Indiana
Utah12
James Madison
VS
5
Texas
20%
80%
NCAA · Football
College Football Playoff
Projected field · 12-Team CFP Field Updated Oct 8, 2026, 2:00 AM PT
College Football Playoff — Projected
First-Round Byes
Top 4 seeds receive a first-round bye
| Seed | Team | Conference | Record | Projected Record | OLC Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | SEC | 5-0 | 13-0 | 75.38 |
| 2 | Miami (FL) | ACC | 5-0 | 13-0 | 74.24 |
| 3 | Indiana | Big Ten | 5-0 | 13-0 | 72.90 |
| 4 | Utah | Big 12 | 4-0 | 12-1 | 69.99 |
Round of 12
campus sites — true home field
11
LSU
VS
6
BYU
24%
76%
10
Oregon
VS
7
Texas Tech
27%
73%
9
Houston
VS
8
Georgia
37%
63%
First Four Out
Next teams in if an at-large spot opens up, ranked by OLC among at-large candidates
| At-Large Rank | Team | Conference | Record | Projected Record | OLC Rating | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Florida | SEC | 4-1 | 10-2 | 64.32 | First team out |
| 9 | Nebraska | Big Ten | 5-0 | 10-2 | 64.02 | |
| 10 | Notre Dame | Independent | 5-0 | 10-2 | 63.78 | |
| 11 | Southern California | Big Ten | 5-1 | 10-2 | 63.75 |
Florida
Nebraska
Notre Dame
Southern CaliforniaQuarterfinals
neutral site — no reseeding
1
Alabama
VS
8
Georgia
83%
17%
4
Utah
VS
5
Texas
50%
50%
2
Miami (FL)
VS
7
Texas Tech
72%
28%
3
Indiana
VS
6
BYU
65%
35%
Semifinals
neutral site — no reseeding
1
Alabama
VS
4
Utah
71%
29%
2
Miami (FL)
VS
3
Indiana
55%
45%
National Championship
neutral site
1
Alabama
VS
2
Miami (FL)
55%
45%
OLC Projected National Champion
Alabama
55% chance to win
Methodology. Preseason-projected field — seeded off Final Projected Rating since no games have been played yet. First-round campus-site games use OLC’s full home-field win-probability model; every later round is played at a neutral site, so those (and every non-CFP bowl game) use OLC’s neutral-site model instead. Nothing here reflects an actual committee selection or announced bracket — this is OLC’s projection for how the season finishes.