OLC Digital Ratings
NCAA · Football

OLC Bracketology

Projected 24-Team Field Updated Oct 5, 2026, 12:16 AM PT

NCAA FCS Football Playoff — Projected

First-Round Byes

Seeds 1–4
1HarvardIvy League · OLC 58.46AQ
2LehighPatriot League · OLC 58.36AQ
3SFASouthland · OLC 58.35AQ
4North DakotaMissouri Valley Football · OLC 57.81AQ

First-Round Byes

Seeds 5–8
5Montana St.Big Sky · OLC 56.87AQ
6Austin PeayUnited Athletic · OLC 55.64AQ
7Tarleton St.United Athletic · OLC 54.89AL
8South Dakota St.Missouri Valley Football · OLC 54.60AL

First Four Out

Next four outside the field
1ColgatePatriot League · OLC 46.99
2South DakotaMissouri Valley Football · OLC 46.99
3RichmondPatriot League · OLC 46.99
4Northern Ariz.Big Sky · OLC 46.99

First Round

16 Teams • 8 Games · campus sites — seeds 9-16 host

17
Youngstown St.4-2 · OLC 49.81
VS
16
Lamar University4-1 · OLC 49.84
OLC PICK Lamar UniversityLean
18
Idaho St.4-1 · OLC 49.43
VS
15
Bryant4-1 · OLC 50.53
OLC PICK BryantLean
19
Dayton3-1 · OLC 48.88
VS
14
Tennessee Tech4-1 · OLC 51.03
OLC PICK Tennessee TechLikely
20
Illinois St.4-2 · OLC 48.82
VS
13
Yale2-1 · OLC 51.17
OLC PICK YaleLikely
21
Cornell2-1 · OLC 48.20
VS
12
Princeton2-1 · OLC 51.76
OLC PICK PrincetonLikely
22
Mercer4-2 · OLC 48.05
VS
11
Campbell5-1 · OLC 52.87
OLC PICK CampbellLikely
23
Western Ill.3-3 · OLC 42.23
VS
10
Butler4-1 · OLC 53.55
OLC PICK ButlerStrong
24
Robert Morris3-2 · OLC 41.44
VS
9
Montana5-1 · OLC 53.86
OLC PICK MontanaStrong

Second Round — Projected

16 Teams • 8 Games · campus sites — seeds 1-8 host

16
Lamar University4-1 · OLC 49.84
VS
1
Harvard3-0 · OLC 58.46
OLC PICK HarvardStrong
15
Bryant4-1 · OLC 50.53
VS
2
Lehigh6-0 · OLC 58.36
OLC PICK LehighStrong
14
Tennessee Tech4-1 · OLC 51.03
VS
3
SFA6-0 · OLC 58.35
OLC PICK SFAStrong
13
Yale2-1 · OLC 51.17
VS
4
North Dakota5-1 · OLC 57.81
OLC PICK North DakotaStrong
12
Princeton2-1 · OLC 51.76
VS
5
Montana St.5-1 · OLC 56.87
OLC PICK Montana St.Likely
11
Campbell5-1 · OLC 52.87
VS
6
Austin Peay5-1 · OLC 55.64
OLC PICK Austin PeayLikely
10
Butler4-1 · OLC 53.55
VS
7
Tarleton St.5-0 · OLC 54.89
OLC PICK Tarleton St.Likely
9
Montana5-1 · OLC 53.86
VS
8
South Dakota St.5-1 · OLC 54.60
OLC PICK South Dakota St.Lean

Quarterfinals — Projected

8 Teams • 4 Games · campus sites — higher remaining seed hosts

8
South Dakota St.5-1 · OLC 54.60
VS
1
Harvard3-0 · OLC 58.46
OLC PICK HarvardLikely
5
Montana St.5-1 · OLC 56.87
VS
4
North Dakota5-1 · OLC 57.81
OLC PICK North DakotaLean
7
Tarleton St.5-0 · OLC 54.89
VS
2
Lehigh6-0 · OLC 58.36
OLC PICK LehighLikely
6
Austin Peay5-1 · OLC 55.64
VS
3
SFA6-0 · OLC 58.35
OLC PICK SFALikely

Semifinals — Projected

4 Teams • 2 Games · campus sites — higher remaining seed hosts

4
North Dakota5-1 · OLC 57.81
VS
1
Harvard3-0 · OLC 58.46
OLC PICK HarvardLean
3
SFA6-0 · OLC 58.35
VS
2
Lehigh6-0 · OLC 58.36
OLC PICK LehighLean

National Championship

neutral site — FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, TN

1
Harvard3-0 · OLC 58.46
VS
2
Lehigh6-0 · OLC 58.36
OLC PICK HarvardToss-up
OLC Projected National Champion
Harvard
50% chance to win
Methodology. Preseason-projected field — seeded off Final Projected Rating since no games have been played yet. First Round, Second Round, Quarterfinals and Semifinals are all real campus-site games, so those use OLC’s full home-field win-probability model; the National Championship is played at a fixed neutral site, so that game uses OLC’s neutral-site model instead. Nothing here reflects an actual selection committee decision or announced bracket — this is OLC’s projection for how the season and playoff finish.