OLC Digital Ratings
NCAA · Football

OLC Bracketology

Projected 24-Team Field Updated Oct 5, 2026, 12:16 AM PT

NCAA FCS Football Playoff — Current

First-Round Byes

Seeds 1–4
1North DakotaMissouri Valley Football · OLC 50.65AQ
2HarvardIvy League · OLC 50.61AQ
3SFASouthland · OLC 49.85AQ
4LehighPatriot League · OLC 49.36AQ

First-Round Byes

Seeds 5–8
5South Dakota St.Missouri Valley Football · OLC 48.55AL
6Montana St.Big Sky · OLC 48.54AQ
7MontanaBig Sky · OLC 46.64AL
8Austin PeayUnited Athletic · OLC 45.73AQ

First Four Out

Next four outside the field
1BryantCoastal Athletic Association · OLC 39.87
2ColgatePatriot League · OLC 39.77
3Lamar UniversitySouthland · OLC 39.69
4Southern Ill.Missouri Valley Football · OLC 37.80

First Round

16 Teams • 8 Games · campus sites — seeds 9-16 host

17
Illinois St.4-2 · OLC 42.04
VS
16
Butler4-1 · OLC 42.13
OLC PICK ButlerLean
18
Tennessee Tech4-1 · OLC 41.65
VS
15
South Dakota4-2 · OLC 43.18
OLC PICK South DakotaLikely
19
Idaho St.4-1 · OLC 40.34
VS
14
Yale2-1 · OLC 43.38
OLC PICK YaleLikely
20
North Ala.4-2 · OLC 40.07
VS
13
Youngstown St.4-2 · OLC 43.62
OLC PICK Youngstown St.Likely
21
Northern Ariz.4-2 · OLC 40.07
VS
12
Campbell5-1 · OLC 44.45
OLC PICK CampbellLikely
22
Mercer4-2 · OLC 39.88
VS
11
Princeton2-1 · OLC 44.68
OLC PICK PrincetonLikely
23
Western Ill.3-3 · OLC 28.21
VS
10
Tarleton St.5-0 · OLC 45.30
OLC PICK Tarleton St.Strong
24
Robert Morris3-2 · OLC 25.10
VS
9
Cornell2-1 · OLC 45.47
OLC PICK CornellStrong

Second Round — Projected

16 Teams • 8 Games · campus sites — seeds 1-8 host

16
Butler4-1 · OLC 42.13
VS
1
North Dakota5-1 · OLC 50.65
OLC PICK North DakotaStrong
15
South Dakota4-2 · OLC 43.18
VS
2
Harvard3-0 · OLC 50.61
OLC PICK HarvardStrong
14
Yale2-1 · OLC 43.38
VS
3
SFA6-0 · OLC 49.85
OLC PICK SFAStrong
13
Youngstown St.4-2 · OLC 43.62
VS
4
Lehigh6-0 · OLC 49.36
OLC PICK LehighLikely
12
Campbell5-1 · OLC 44.45
VS
5
South Dakota St.5-1 · OLC 48.55
OLC PICK South Dakota St.Likely
11
Princeton2-1 · OLC 44.68
VS
6
Montana St.5-1 · OLC 48.54
OLC PICK Montana St.Likely
10
Tarleton St.5-0 · OLC 45.30
VS
7
Montana5-1 · OLC 46.64
OLC PICK MontanaLikely
9
Cornell2-1 · OLC 45.47
VS
8
Austin Peay5-1 · OLC 45.73
OLC PICK Austin PeayLean

Quarterfinals — Projected

8 Teams • 4 Games · campus sites — higher remaining seed hosts

8
Austin Peay5-1 · OLC 45.73
VS
1
North Dakota5-1 · OLC 50.65
OLC PICK North DakotaLikely
5
South Dakota St.5-1 · OLC 48.55
VS
4
Lehigh6-0 · OLC 49.36
OLC PICK LehighLean
7
Montana5-1 · OLC 46.64
VS
2
Harvard3-0 · OLC 50.61
OLC PICK HarvardLikely
6
Montana St.5-1 · OLC 48.54
VS
3
SFA6-0 · OLC 49.85
OLC PICK SFALikely

Semifinals — Projected

4 Teams • 2 Games · campus sites — higher remaining seed hosts

4
Lehigh6-0 · OLC 49.36
VS
1
North Dakota5-1 · OLC 50.65
OLC PICK North DakotaLikely
3
SFA6-0 · OLC 49.85
VS
2
Harvard3-0 · OLC 50.61
OLC PICK HarvardLean

National Championship

neutral site — FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, TN

1
North Dakota5-1 · OLC 50.65
VS
2
Harvard3-0 · OLC 50.61
OLC PICK North DakotaToss-up
OLC Projected National Champion
North Dakota
50% chance to win
Methodology. Preseason-projected field — seeded off Final Projected Rating since no games have been played yet. First Round, Second Round, Quarterfinals and Semifinals are all real campus-site games, so those use OLC’s full home-field win-probability model; the National Championship is played at a fixed neutral site, so that game uses OLC’s neutral-site model instead. Nothing here reflects an actual selection committee decision or announced bracket — this is where the field stands today.