OLC Digital Ratings
NCAA · Football

College Football Playoff

Current field · 12-Team CFP Field Updated Oct 8, 2026, 11:54 PM PT

College Football Playoff — Current

#1 Seed (Current)
Alabama
72.83
SEC · 5-0
Last CFP At-Large
Southern California
#11
Big Ten
Bowl Eligible
0
Teams with 6+ wins so far
First Team Out
Nebraska
60.48
Big Ten

First-Round Byes

Top 4 seeds receive a first-round bye

SeedTeamConferenceRecordProjected RecordOLC Rating
1AlabamaSEC5-013-072.83
2TexasSEC4-012-169.38
3Miami (FL)ACC5-013-066.82
4IndianaBig Ten5-013-066.48

Round of 12

campus sites — true home field

12
James Madison5-0 · OLC 54.35
VS
5
BYU4-0 · OLC 63.70
OLC PICK BYUStrong
11
Southern California5-1 · OLC 61.20
VS
6
Utah4-0 · OLC 62.43
OLC PICK UtahLean
10
Missouri4-1 · OLC 61.22
VS
7
Georgia5-0 · OLC 62.42
OLC PICK GeorgiaLean
9
Ohio St.4-1 · OLC 61.93
VS
8
Texas Tech5-0 · OLC 62.36
OLC PICK Texas TechLean

First Four Out

Next teams in if an at-large spot opens up, ranked by OLC among at-large candidates

At-Large RankTeamConferenceRecordProjected RecordOLC RatingNotes
8NebraskaBig Ten5-010-260.48First team out
9LSUSEC4-19-360.37
10FloridaSEC4-110-260.03
11Notre DameIndependent5-010-259.99

Quarterfinals

neutral site — no reseeding

1
Alabama5-0 · OLC 72.83
VS
8
Texas Tech5-0 · OLC 62.36
OLC PICK AlabamaStrong
4
Indiana5-0 · OLC 66.48
VS
5
BYU4-0 · OLC 63.70
OLC PICK IndianaLean
2
Texas4-0 · OLC 69.38
VS
7
Georgia5-0 · OLC 62.42
OLC PICK TexasLikely
3
Miami (FL)5-0 · OLC 66.82
VS
6
Utah4-0 · OLC 62.43
OLC PICK Miami (FL)Likely

Semifinals

neutral site — no reseeding

1
Alabama5-0 · OLC 72.83
VS
4
Indiana5-0 · OLC 66.48
OLC PICK AlabamaLikely
2
Texas4-0 · OLC 69.38
VS
3
Miami (FL)5-0 · OLC 66.82
OLC PICK TexasLean

National Championship

neutral site

1
Alabama5-0 · OLC 72.83
VS
2
Texas4-0 · OLC 69.38
OLC PICK AlabamaLean
OLC Projected National Champion
Alabama
64% chance to win
Methodology. Preseason-projected field — seeded off Final Projected Rating since no games have been played yet. First-round campus-site games use OLC’s full home-field win-probability model; every later round is played at a neutral site, so those (and every non-CFP bowl game) use OLC’s neutral-site model instead. Nothing here reflects an actual committee selection or announced bracket — this is where the field stands today.