OLC Digital Ratings
NFL · Football

NFL Playoff Projections

Current Playoff Field · 14 Teams · 7 AFC · 7 NFC Updated Oct 5, 2026, 9:18 PM PT

NFL Playoff Projections — Current

AFC Playoff Field

SeedTeamRecordOLC
1Kansas City ChiefsFirst-Round Bye4-036.02
2Jacksonville JaguarsDivision Winner3-126.93
3Buffalo BillsDivision Winner3-125.66
4Baltimore RavensDivision Winner3-124.06
5Las Vegas RaidersWild Card3-128.64
6New England PatriotsWild Card2-222.93
7Cleveland BrownsWild Card3-122.84
1Kansas City Chiefs36.02
First-Round Bye4-0
2Jacksonville Jaguars26.93
Division Winner3-1
3Buffalo Bills25.66
Division Winner3-1
4Baltimore Ravens24.06
Division Winner3-1
5Las Vegas Raiders28.64
Wild Card3-1
6New England Patriots22.93
Wild Card2-2
7Cleveland Browns22.84
Wild Card3-1

NFC Playoff Field

SeedTeamRecordOLC
1San Francisco 49ersFirst-Round Bye4-039.62
2Minnesota VikingsDivision Winner4-037.55
3Atlanta FalconsDivision Winner2-223.25
4New York GiantsDivision Winner3-122.98
5Seattle SeahawksWild Card3-134.59
6Chicago BearsWild Card3-131.09
7Los Angeles RamsWild Card2-223.89
1San Francisco 49ers39.62
First-Round Bye4-0
2Minnesota Vikings37.55
Division Winner4-0
3Atlanta Falcons23.25
Division Winner2-2
4New York Giants22.98
Division Winner3-1
5Seattle Seahawks34.59
Wild Card3-1
6Chicago Bears31.09
Wild Card3-1
7Los Angeles Rams23.89
Wild Card2-2

Wild Card Round

true home field

AFC Wild Card Round

1Kansas City ChiefsFirst-Round Bye
7
Cleveland Browns3-1 · OLC 22.84
VS
2
Jacksonville Jaguars3-1 · OLC 26.93
OLC PICK Jacksonville JaguarsLikely
6
New England Patriots2-2 · OLC 22.93
VS
3
Buffalo Bills3-1 · OLC 25.66
OLC PICK Buffalo BillsLikely
5
Las Vegas Raiders3-1 · OLC 28.64
VS
4
Baltimore Ravens3-1 · OLC 24.06
OLC PICK Las Vegas RaidersLean

NFC Wild Card Round

1San Francisco 49ersFirst-Round Bye
7
Los Angeles Rams2-2 · OLC 23.89
VS
2
Minnesota Vikings4-0 · OLC 37.55
OLC PICK Minnesota VikingsStrong
6
Chicago Bears3-1 · OLC 31.09
VS
3
Atlanta Falcons2-2 · OLC 23.25
OLC PICK Chicago BearsLikely
5
Seattle Seahawks3-1 · OLC 34.59
VS
4
New York Giants3-1 · OLC 22.98
OLC PICK Seattle SeahawksStrong

Divisional Round — Projected

reseeded — #1 hosts the lowest remaining seed

AFC Divisional Round

5
Las Vegas Raiders3-1 · OLC 28.64
VS
1
Kansas City Chiefs4-0 · OLC 36.02
OLC PICK Kansas City ChiefsStrong
3
Buffalo Bills3-1 · OLC 25.66
VS
2
Jacksonville Jaguars3-1 · OLC 26.93
OLC PICK Jacksonville JaguarsLikely

NFC Divisional Round

6
Chicago Bears3-1 · OLC 31.09
VS
1
San Francisco 49ers4-0 · OLC 39.62
OLC PICK San Francisco 49ersStrong
5
Seattle Seahawks3-1 · OLC 34.59
VS
2
Minnesota Vikings4-0 · OLC 37.55
OLC PICK Minnesota VikingsLikely

Conference Championships — Projected

higher seed hosts

AFC Championship

2
Jacksonville Jaguars3-1 · OLC 26.93
VS
1
Kansas City Chiefs4-0 · OLC 36.02
OLC PICK Kansas City ChiefsStrong

NFC Championship

2
Minnesota Vikings4-0 · OLC 37.55
VS
1
San Francisco 49ers4-0 · OLC 39.62
OLC PICK San Francisco 49ersLikely

Super Bowl LXI — Projected

SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA — Feb 14, 2027

1
Kansas City Chiefs4-0 · OLC 36.02
VS
1
San Francisco 49ers4-0 · OLC 39.62
OLC PICK San Francisco 49ersLean
OLC Projected Super Bowl Champion
San Francisco 49ers
64% projected win probability
How OLC NFL Playoff Projections Work. OLC builds the 14-team field (the top 4 teams in each conference by division, seeded 1–4, plus the next 3 best records per conference as seeds 5–7), projects the Wild Card Round (seed 7 at seed 2, seed 6 at seed 3, seed 5 at seed 4, with the #1 seed idle on a first-round bye) using OLC’s full home-field win-probability model, then reseeds each conference for the Divisional Round — the #1 seed hosts whichever surviving team has the lowest seed, and the other two surviving teams play each other, with the better seed hosting. Projected winners advance through the Conference Championships (again, better seed hosts) to a Super Bowl projection, which uses OLC’s neutral-site model since neither team is truly “home.” Nothing here reflects an actual NFL schedule release, coin toss, or committee decision — every matchup, probability and pick updates automatically as OLC Ratings do.