OLC Digital Ratings
NAIA · Football

NAIA Championship Picture

Current Playoff Field · If the regular season ended today · 20 Teams Updated Oct 5, 2026, 2:16 AM PT

NAIA Football Championship Series — Current

Automatic Qualifiers

13 conference champions
1St. ThomasThe Sun Conference · OLC 62.17AQ
2College of IdahoFrontier Conference West · OLC 59.31AQ
3FriendsKansas Collegiate Athletic Conference Bissell · OLC 57.97AQ
4Indiana WesleyanMid-States Football Association Mideast · OLC 57.54AQ
5Benedictine (KS)Heart of America Athletic Conference South · OLC 57.09AQ
8CampbellsvilleMid-South Conference · OLC 54.17AQ
10Montana TechFrontier Conference East · OLC 52.58AQ
11MorningsideGreat Plains Athletic Conference · OLC 51.06AQ
13Grand ViewHeart of America Athletic Conference North · OLC 49.67AQ
17Olivet NazareneMid-States Football Association Midwest · OLC 47.44AQ
18Louisiana ChristianSooner Athletic Conference · OLC 44.53AQ
19EvangelKansas Collegiate Athletic Conference Kessinger · OLC 40.81AQ
20PikevilleAppalachian Athletic Conference · OLC 28.21AQ

At-Large Selections

7 at-large bids
6KeiserThe Sun Conference · OLC 55.82AL
7McPhersonKansas Collegiate Athletic Conference Bissell · OLC 54.91AL
9Lindsey WilsonMid-South Conference · OLC 52.75AL
12MidlandGreat Plains Athletic Conference · OLC 50.25AL
14BakerHeart of America Athletic Conference South · OLC 48.95AL
15CarrollFrontier Conference West · OLC 48.42AL
16SouthwesternKansas Collegiate Athletic Conference Bissell · OLC 48.14AL

First Four Out

Next four outside the field
1CumberlandsMid-South Conference · OLC 47.47
2SoutheasternThe Sun Conference · OLC 45.43
3MarianMid-States Football Association Midwest · OLC 44.86
4CumberlandMid-South Conference · OLC 44.83

First Round

8 Teams • 4 Games · campus sites — true home field; seeds 13-20

20
Pikeville3-2 · OLC 28.21
VS
13
Grand View5-1 · OLC 49.67
OLC PICK Grand ViewStrong
19
Evangel4-2 · OLC 40.81
VS
14
Baker4-1 · OLC 48.95
OLC PICK BakerStrong
17
Olivet Nazarene4-0 · OLC 47.44
VS
15
Carroll4-1 · OLC 48.42
OLC PICK CarrollLean
18
Louisiana Christian5-1 · OLC 44.53
VS
16
Southwestern5-1 · OLC 48.14
OLC PICK SouthwesternLikely

Round of 16 — Projected

16 Teams • 8 Games · campus sites — reseeded; better seed hosts

14
Baker4-1 · OLC 48.95
VS
1
St. Thomas5-0 · OLC 62.17
OLC PICK St. ThomasStrong
10
Montana Tech5-1 · OLC 52.58
VS
2
College of Idaho5-0 · OLC 59.31
OLC PICK College of IdahoStrong
16
Southwestern5-1 · OLC 48.14
VS
3
Friends6-0 · OLC 57.97
OLC PICK FriendsStrong
13
Grand View5-1 · OLC 49.67
VS
4
Indiana Wesleyan5-0 · OLC 57.54
OLC PICK Indiana WesleyanStrong
12
Midland5-1 · OLC 50.25
VS
5
Benedictine (KS)5-1 · OLC 57.09
OLC PICK Benedictine (KS)Strong
11
Morningside5-1 · OLC 51.06
VS
6
Keiser3-1 · OLC 55.82
OLC PICK KeiserLikely
15
Carroll4-1 · OLC 48.42
VS
7
McPherson6-0 · OLC 54.91
OLC PICK McPhersonStrong
9
Lindsey Wilson5-1 · OLC 52.75
VS
8
Campbellsville4-1 · OLC 54.17
OLC PICK CampbellsvilleLikely

Quarterfinals — Projected

8 Teams • 4 Games · campus sites — reseeded; better seed hosts

6
Keiser3-1 · OLC 55.82
VS
1
St. Thomas5-0 · OLC 62.17
OLC PICK St. ThomasStrong
5
Benedictine (KS)5-1 · OLC 57.09
VS
2
College of Idaho5-0 · OLC 59.31
OLC PICK College of IdahoLikely
7
McPherson6-0 · OLC 54.91
VS
3
Friends6-0 · OLC 57.97
OLC PICK FriendsLikely
8
Campbellsville4-1 · OLC 54.17
VS
4
Indiana Wesleyan5-0 · OLC 57.54
OLC PICK Indiana WesleyanLikely

Semifinals — Projected

4 Teams • 2 Games · campus sites — reseeded; better seed hosts

4
Indiana Wesleyan5-0 · OLC 57.54
VS
1
St. Thomas5-0 · OLC 62.17
OLC PICK St. ThomasLikely
3
Friends6-0 · OLC 57.97
VS
2
College of Idaho5-0 · OLC 59.31
OLC PICK College of IdahoLikely

National Championship

fixed neutral site

2
College of Idaho5-0 · OLC 59.31
VS
1
St. Thomas5-0 · OLC 62.17
OLC PICK St. ThomasLean
OLC Projected National Champion
St. Thomas
62% chance to win
Methodology. Each of the 13 recognized conferences gets exactly one automatic qualifier (its champion, the highest-rated eligible team); the remaining at-large slots go to the next-highest-rated eligible teams nationally. Seeds 1-12 bye into the Round of 16; seeds 13-20 play the First Round, hosted by the higher seed. Every round is a real campus-site game using OLC’s full home-field win-probability model, except the National Championship, played at a fixed neutral site, which uses OLC’s neutral-site model instead. Nothing here reflects an actual selection-committee decision or announced bracket — this is where the field stands today.